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PROOF 166

Prove.

The expected value may never actually occur

On a probability space.

A way to read this proof

First separate what is assumed from what is to be proved. At each step, ask which definition or earlier result permits the move. If it is unclear, return to that premise rather than skipping to the conclusion.

Definition D1

A random variable X is called finite-valued when the values it takes are only the distinct x₁, …, x_k.

Proof.

(1)The values are distinct, so the events {X = xᵢ} are mutually disjoint.convention
(2)Every sample point takes some value, so their union is Ω.convention
(3)Therefore {X = x₁}, …, {X = x_k} form a partition of Ω.(1), (2)

∎

Definition D2

Let pᵢ = P(X = xᵢ), and define the expectation of X as E(X) = x₁p₁ + ⋯ + x_k p_k.

Proof.

The values are finitely many, so this sum has finitely many terms.convention, D1

∎

Lemma L1

p₁ + ⋯ + p_k = 1

Proof.

(1){X = x₁}, …, {X = x_k} are mutually disjoint and their union is Ω.D1
(2)P(Ω) = P(X=x₁) + ⋯ + P(X=x_k)(1), A1
(3)P(Ω) = 1A2
(4)p₁ + ⋯ + p_k = 1(2), (3), D2, E

∎

Theorem T1

Let m be the smallest and M the largest of the values of X. Then m ≤ E(X) ≤ M

Proof.

(1)For every i, pᵢ = P(X = xᵢ) ≥ 0A3, D2
(2)For every i, xᵢ ≤ Massumption
(3)xᵢ pᵢ ≤ M pᵢ(1), (2), A4
(4)Σ xᵢ pᵢ ≤ Σ M pᵢ(3), A5
(5)Σ M pᵢ = M Σ pᵢA6
(6)Since Σ pᵢ = 1, Σ M pᵢ = M(5), L1, N
(7)E(X) ≤ M(4), (6), D2
(8)For every i, m ≤ xᵢ, so m pᵢ ≤ xᵢ pᵢ(1), assumption, A4
(9)Σ m pᵢ ≤ Σ xᵢ pᵢ and Σ m pᵢ = m Σ pᵢ = m(8), A5, A6, L1, N
(10)m ≤ E(X) ≤ M(7), (9), D2

∎

Theorem T2

If there are at least two values and every pᵢ is positive, then m < E(X) < M

Proof.

(1)E(X) − m = Σ xᵢpᵢ − m Σ pᵢ = Σ (xᵢ − m) pᵢD2, L1, A6
(2)For every i, xᵢ − m ≥ 0 and pᵢ > 0, so (xᵢ − m)pᵢ ≥ 0assumption, A4
(3)There are at least two values, so some j has x_j > m.assumption
(4)x_j − m > 0 and p_j > 0, so (x_j − m)p_j > 0(3), assumption, A7
(5)Every term is non-negative and one term is positive, so Σ (xᵢ − m)pᵢ > 0(2), (4), A8
(6)m < E(X)(1), (5)
(7)Applying the same argument to M − E(X) = Σ (M − xᵢ)pᵢ gives E(X) < M(1), (2), (4), (5), A6, A8
(8)Since m < E(X) < M, E(X) is neither the minimum nor the maximum.(6), (7)

∎

Corollary C1

If there are only two values, both with positive probability, then E(X) is neither of them. The E(X) of a die is 3.5, which is no face at all.

Proof.

(1)Suppose the only values are x₁ < x₂ with p₁ > 0, p₂ > 0.assumption, D1
(2)x₁ < E(X) < x₂, so E(X) is neither x₁ nor x₂.(1), T2
(3)Suppose the values of a die are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, each with probability 1/6.assumption, D1
(4)The six terms sum to 6 × (1/6) = 1, consistent with L1.(3), L1, N
(5)E(X) = (1+2+3+4+5+6) × (1/6) = 21/6 = 3.5(3), D2, N
(6)All values are integers and 3.5 is not, so no i has 3.5 = xᵢ.(3), (5), N
(7)1 < 3.5 < 6, consistent with T2.(5), T2, N
(8)Therefore the expectation is a point between the values, and there is no guarantee that this point is a value of X.(2), (6), (7)

∎

Remark

Can A4 be removed from this proof?

3.5 is a number produced by computation. Remove the axiom and see whether that number disappears, or something else does.