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PROOF 162

Prove.

The probability of the complement is one minus the original

On a probability space.

A way to read this proof

First separate what is assumed from what is to be proved. At each step, ask which definition or earlier result permits the move. If it is unclear, return to that premise rather than skipping to the conclusion.

Definition D1

For an event A of a sample space S, the event Aᶜ = S ∖ A is called the complement of A.

Proof.

(1)Every outcome of S belongs to A or to Aᶜ, so S = A ∪ Aᶜconvention
(2)No outcome belongs to both, so A ∩ Aᶜ = ∅convention
(3)Therefore A and Aᶜ are disjoint and form a partition of S.(1), (2)

∎

Definition D2

When S is finite and all outcomes are equally likely, the probability of an event E is defined as P(E) = |E| / |S|.

Proof.

This definition applies only to finite sample spaces with equally likely outcomes.convention

∎

Theorem T1

For every event A, P(Aᶜ) = 1 − P(A)

Proof.

(1)S = A ∪ Aᶜ, and the two events are disjoint.D1
(2)P(S) = P(A) + P(Aᶜ)(1), A2
(3)P(S) = 1A1
(4)P(A) + P(Aᶜ) = 1(2), (3), E
(5)P(Aᶜ) = 1 − P(A)(4), A3

∎

Corollary C1

When a die is rolled n times, the probability that a 6 appears at least once is 1 − 5ⁿ/6ⁿ.

Proof.

(1)Suppose a single roll has 6 outcomes, all equally likely.assumption
(2)The n rolls have 6 options in each position, so |S| = 6ⁿ(1), A4
(3)Let A be the event that a 6 appears at least once. Then Aᶜ is the event that a 6 never appears.D1
(4)The non-6 outcomes give 5 options in each position, so |Aᶜ| = 5ⁿ(3), A4
(5)P(Aᶜ) = 5ⁿ / 6ⁿ(1), (2), (4), D2
(6)P(A) = 1 − 5ⁿ/6ⁿ(5), T1
(7)To count A directly, one must split it into the events where a 6 appears exactly k times. Those events are mutually disjoint, so |A| is a sum of n terms.(3), A5
(8)Aᶜ does not split. One application of the multiplication principle — 5 options in each position — finishes it.(4), A4
(9)For n = 2, P(A) = 1 − 25/36 = 11/36.(6), N
(10)Counting directly: a 6 appears exactly once in 2 × 5 = 10 ways and exactly twice in 1 way, so |A| = 11 and the probability is 11/36. The two values agree.(7), (9), A4, A5, D2, N
(11)The complement is easy not because the computation is short. The opposite of 'at least one' is 'none at all', and that is a single event with the same condition in every position.(7), (8)

∎

Remark

Can A2 be removed from this proof?

The complement identity looks like a subtraction. Check which axiom that subtraction comes from.